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Market views

Get the latest update from our Capital Markets & Strategy team’s views of current market events.

Meet our authors

Thumbnail image of Philip PetrussonPhilip Petursson, CIM

Chief Investment Strategist
Manulife Investments

bio of Philip Petursson

Thumbnail image of Kevin HeadlandKevin Headland, CIM

Senior Investment Strategist
Manulife Investments

bio of Kevin Headland

Thumbnail image of Macan NiaMacan Nia, CFA

Senior Investment Strategist
Manulife Investments

bio of Macan Nia

 

Investment Notes

Winter is Coming (PDF)
April 2019
We believe where we are in the economic and market cycle, and where we may be heading in the next 24 months, that starting to shift from equities into bonds can reduce the potential downside risk without materially giving up much upside.

Why Buy Boat Insurance, If You Don’t Have A Boat? (PDF)
April 2019
This muted level of inflation and change in the Fed’s interest rate posture has changed the narrative for fixed income investors. There is no longer a need for investors to protect against the risk of inflation and rising rates.

The Medium is the Message – Revisited (PDF)
March 2019
Investors may want to focus on why the Fed paused in determining a course of action. To that end we feel that a more neutral asset mix with an eye towards shifting to a more defensive posture may be warranted through 2019.

Q4 Canadian GDP Slump is Just the Start (PDF)
March 2019
We aren’t yet closing the book on the prospects for the Canadian economy to skate by a recession in 2019. But we do reiterate our odds of recession in 2019 at 50% and the trend doesn’t look promising.

When in Doubt, The Magic 8 Ball has all the Investment Advice Answers (PDF)
February 2019
Let’s ask our trusty Magic 8 Ball the questions that our team has received most often during the past couple of weeks.

Investment Note 2019 Outlook - Travel with Caution, not Fear (PDF)
January 2019
Overall, our expectations are for an improved investment environment than that of the fourth quarter. If we offer any theme to 2019 we would suggest travel with caution and not fear.

An oh-so subtle change in tone leaves the markets wanting more (PDF)
December 19, 2018
We are becoming more of the belief that 3.23% may have been the top for the US 10-Year Treasury Yield.  Our thesis of the worst being behind us, 2019 looks much improved and bonds are likely to mark a return to their defensive characteristics appear to be supported by the Fed.

Do Loonies Fly South for the Winter? (PDF)
November 12, 2018
Our view is that the CAD is slightly overvalued today (fair value is US$0.74) with the target over the next six to twelve months at this level or lower.

Lifting the veil of uncertainty (PDF)
November 7, 2018
We would suggest that the key takeaway from the results of the election is that one layer of uncertainty has been removed. That is simply, what is the outcome of the election.

Markets are pulling back, it must be October (PDF)
October 16, 2018
We believe this market activity is a readjustment of prices to the current inflation and interest rate environment and not representative of something more ominous.

“Stay on target” (PDF)
September 26, 2018
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its target benchmark for the third time in 2018 to 2.00-2.25% on Wednesday.

School’s Back in Session (PDF)
September 4, 2018
As we consider the current investor sentiment and market opportunities it’s time for our “Back to School” analysis of the investment opportunity.

Canadians love playing the game “Spot the Loonie” (PDF)
June 20, 2018
I believe the near-term trend for the Canadian dollar is at its current level (US$0.75-0.76) with risk to the downside.

As expected the Federal Open Market Committee raised its target benchmark interest rate (PDF)
June 13, 2018
Raised its target benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds Rate to 1.75-2.00%.

Textbook move by markets (PDF)
April 27, 2018
2018 expect rising inflation and rates, contracting PE multiples, but positive return driven by strong earnings growth.

Hypersensitivity to External Stimuli (PDF)
March 27, 2018
And therefore, when taken together, fully-valued markets in a rising inflationary, rising interest rate environment will remain hypersensitive to external stimuli.

Sticking to the plan (PDF)
March 21, 2018
To no one’s surprise, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), under new leader Jerome Powell, raised the overnight rate by 25 bps to a range of 1.50 – 1.75%.

May the odds be ever in your favour (PDF)
February 21, 2018
Investing is a probability based decision and when a pullback occurs, history tells that investors are well served to take advantage of the volatility if it occurs in non-recessionary periods.

You need to step back, before you can move forward (PDF)
February 6, 2018
Once we are through this volatility, the equity markets can refocus on the strong earnings and economic growth that we believe will continue through the year.

Equity markets remind investors what volatility can look like (PDF)
February 5, 2018
We believe the past two day’s market activity is a readjustment of prices to the current inflation and interest rate environment and not representative of something more ominous.

The outlook for 2018 (PDF)
January 2018
And given the fact that we do not see any of the typical signs of recession for 2018 we believe the markets will yet again deliver a positive return in 2018.

The Bank of Canada raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% (PDF)
January 2018
We believe the Canadian dollar has reached the upper end of its trading range and would anticipate weakness vis-à-vis the USD in the coming months.

Three to Get Ready (PDF)
December 2017
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced at their December meeting, that they have increased their target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 1.25% - 1.50%.

Between the Uprights (PDF)
November 2017
By Kevin Headland. The price of oil, has soared over ten percent since early October. It is perhaps prudent to revisit our team’s target range for near term oil prices to see if the goal posts need to be adjusted.

Canadian Dollar trending lower as BOC expectation ease (PDF)
October 2017
By Philip Petursson. The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate firm at 1.0% today (Wednesday October 25, 2017) while intimating a slightly less hawkish tone than what had been expressed in recent months.

The 30th Anniversary of the 1987 Crash (PDF)
October 2017
By Philip Petursson. There are many things we can worry about today, but a 1987 style crash wouldn’t be one of them.

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